MARKETS: IEA suggests oil prices still has room to fall with global supply still rising and demand growth weakening

(EnergyAsia, October 31 2014, Friday) — Having crashed nearly 30% since June, world oil prices may still have room to fall further as global supply is rising while demand growth is slowing down rapidly, suggests the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Brent is trading near a four-year low, having fallen below US$83 a barrel this week after hitting a high of over US$115 in June.


Four months of steadily declining oil prices have not led to faster demand growth or put the brakes on supply increases. Instead, both buyers and sellers have reacted largely with indifference. OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia, are more interested in defending their market share and are refusing to slash production to even make a pretend show of propping up prices. US shale firms are still fracking away to raise production to a near three-decade high, confident they will remain profitable with WTI at US$70.

“Further oil price drops would likely be needed for supply to take a hit – or for demand growth to get a lift,” observed the IEA, whose analysis showed that many producers of unconventional oil remain profitable with Brent at US$80 per barrel.

“While it has been noted that many producer countries face a high ‘fiscal breakeven’ price, this is a misnomer. High budget needs might lead them to dig into reserves if oil revenues fall short without necessarily making lowcost oil production uneconomical,” said the IEA.

“Producers, having recently ramped up, are not signalling an imminent cut. For those whose currency is not pegged to the US dollar, recent price drops have been partly offset by swings in foreign exchange rates: thus Russia’s nominal export revenues in roubles inched up lately even as they plunged in dollar terms.”

In its October report, the IEA slashed its forecast for global oil demand to reach 92.40 million b/d in 2014 and to 93.53 million b/d in 2015. This compares with its September call for global demand at 92.61 million b/d for 2014 and 93.84 million b/d for 2015. Its August forecasts were even higher at 92.68 million and 94 million b/d for the two respective years.

The IEA cited the weak outlook on economic growth for reduing its oil demand forecast.

“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast of economic growth for 2014 and 2015 for the third time this year, in its October World Economic Outlook,” it said. The IMF reduced its latest forecasts for the world’s 2014 GDP growth to 3.3%, down from its July estimate of 3.4%, and 3.8% (versus 4.0%) for 2015.

The supply outlook from both OPEC and OPEC sources is rosy, with production in September rising by almost 910,000 b/d to 93.8 million b/d. Compared with a year earlier, total supply has risen by 2.8 million b/d while OPEC crude oil output rose to a 13month high in September, led by Libya’s continued recovery and higher Iraqi production.

 

 

IEA’s global oil demand forecasts

October 2014

                                    2013                2014                2015                2015/2014

Americas                   24.08               24.07               24.14               0.29%

Developing Asia      21.95               22.46               23.10               2.85

MidEast                   7.90                 8.09               8.31               2.72

Latin America                     6.62                 6.77               6.90               1.92

Former SU                4.73                 4.80               4.85               1.04

Africa                        3.84                 3.94               4.11               4.31

Others                                    22.63               22.27               22.12               -0.76

TOTAL                         91.75               92.40               93.53               1.22%

 

September 2014

                                    2013                2014                2015                2015/2014

Americas                   24.08               24.11               24.17               0.25%

Developing Asia      21.93               22.50               23.21               3.16

MidEast                   7.89                 8.11               8.34               2.84

Latin America                     6.62                 6.78               6.92               2.06

Former SU                4.73                 4.80               4.87               1.46

Africa                        3.84                 3.97               4.16               4.79

Others                                    22.62               22.34               22.17               -0.76

TOTAL                         91.71               92.61               93.84               1.33%

 

August 2014

                                    2013                2014                2015                2015/2014

Americas                   24.02               24.07               24.10               0.12%

Developing Asia      21.90               22.53               23.31               3.46

MidEast                   7.90                 8.12               8.37               3.08

Latin America                     6.62                 6.79               6.93               2.06

Former SU                4.73                 4.78               4.84               1.26

Africa                        3.84                 3.97               4.16               4.79

Others                                    22.62               22.42               22.29               -0.58

TOTAL                         91.63               92.68               94.00               1.42%

 

July 2014

                                    2013                2014                2015                2015/2014

Americas                   24.01               24.12               24.14               0.08%

Developing Asia      21.82               22.50               23.31               3.60

MidEast                   7.97                 8.19               8.45               3.17

Latin America                     6.61                 6.78               6.93               2.21

Former SU                4.61                 4.69               4.77               1.71

Africa                        3.71                 3.88               4.06               4.64

Others                                    22.71               22.51               22.42               -0.40

TOTAL                         91.44               92.67               94.08               1.52%

 

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MARKETS: EIA downsized global oil demand and supply forecast for 2015

(EnergyAsia, October 31 2014, Friday) — Responding to lower expectations for global economic growth, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reduced its forecasts for both oil demand and supply for 2015 in its latest monthly report. However, it raised its forecast for this year’s global oil supply from its previous report in September.


In its October report, the agency said it expects global liquid fuels production to rise by 1.79% to 91.76 million b/d this year and by less than 1% to 92.67 million b/d. In September, it had called for the world’s crude and liquids supply to reach 91.68 million in 2014 and 93.02 million b/d in 2015.

US production is forecast to surge nearly 9% to 15.05 million b/d in 2015 and by 12% to 13.82 million b/d this year. Canadian production will rise from 4.1 million b/d in 2013 to 4.38 million b/d in 2014 and 4.47 million b/d next year.

The EIA expects OPEC production to slip further with Saudi Arabia leading the brigade to defend market share in the face of falling oil prices. The cartel’s production is seen falling by 0.69% to 35.78 million b/d this year, and by a further 0.75% to 35.51 million b/d. In its September report, the EIA had expected OPEC production to reach 35.86 million b/d in 2015.

Contributing to the recent weakness in oil prices, the EIA noted that production from troubled spots in Libya and Iraq have rebounded, largely unscathed by the recent surge in conflict.

“Iraq’s southern crude oil exports still remain unaffected by the unrest in northern Iraq. In Libya, production averaged 800,000 b/d in September, its highest level in more than one year,” it said, while warning that Libya’s security situation remains precarious.

On the demand side, the EIA expects the world to consume 91.47 million b/d this year and 92.71 million b/d in 2015, significantly lower compared with its August forecasts for 91.55 million b/d and 92.98 million b/d for the two respective years.

The October forecast calls for global oil demand to grow by 1.13% in 2014 and 1.36% in 2015, down from the September predictions of 1.15% and 1.56% for the two years.

The agency has raised its forecast for North America’s oil demand to rise by 0.86% to 23.56 million b/d in 2015 in line with reports of stronger growth in the US economy.

It kept unchanged its prediction for China’s 2014 oil demand at 10.98 million b/d but lowered the 2015 forecast to 11.35 million from its September call for 11.41 million b/d.

Reflecting the oil markets’ weaker sentiments, the EIA expects North Sea Brent crude oil prices to average US$98 a barrel this quarter before recovering to US$102 for 2015.

Oct 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d
2013     2014 *    y/y %    2015 *    y/y %
N. America        23.40     23.36     -0.17    23.56     0.86
China                  10.61      10.98     3.49     11.35      3.37
Others                56.44     57.13       1.22     57.80    1.17
TOTAL              90.45      91.47       1.13     92.71     1.36
*forecast

Sept 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d
2013      2014 *    y/y %    2015 *    y/y %
N. America        23.38     23.35     -0.13      23.54    0.81
China                 10.61       10.98     3.49       11.41      3.92
Others                56.52      57.22     1.24       58.03     1.42
TOTAL               90.51      91.55      1.15       92.98     1.56
*forecast

Oct 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d
2013     2014 *    y/y %    2015 *    y/y %
OPEC             36.03     35.78     -0.69    35.51    -0.75
Non-OPEC    54.12     55.98     3.44    57.15    2.09
– US                12.34     13.82    11.99    15.05    8.90
TOTAL          90.15      91.76     1.79    92.67    0.99
*forecast

Sept 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d
2013     2014 *    y/y %    2015 *    y/y %
OPEC            36.02     35.77     -0.69    35.86    0.25
Non-OPEC  54.08     55.91     3.39    57.16    2.24
– US               12.35    13.78    11.58    14.99    8.78
TOTAL         90.10     91.68     1.75    93.02    1.46
*forecast

 

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MARKETS: OPEC maintains global economic outlook, oil demand and supply forecasts for 2014 and 2015

(EnergyAsia, October 30 2014, Thursday) — Maintaining its outlook for the global economy, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has also retained its latest forecasts for world oil demand and supply for 2014 and 2015 unchanged from its previous report in September. In its October report, the cartel said it expects the world to…

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JAPAN: Tepco-Chubu Electric alliance lead country’s charge for lower LNG import prices, energy projects and trade

(EnergyAsia, October 30 2014, Thursday) — Two of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importers in Japan said they will team up to demand better prices and terms from suppliers as the country remains far from reviving its idled nuclear power plants that used to generate 30% of its electricity.


In forming their equal joint venture to become the world’s biggest LNG buyer Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco) and Chubu Electric Power Co said they will also work on overseas projects, operate LNG receiving terminals, carriers and energy infrastructure, trade energy and replace Tepco’s old thermal power stations in Tokyo Bay.

Chubu and the joint venture, to be formally established by March 2015, will not be involved in issues related to Tepco’s Fukushima nuclear power plants that were seriously damaged by the earthquake-tsunami disaster of March 2011. Having shut down almost its entire nuclear power capacity since the disaster, Japan has been forced to pay high prices for its oil, gas and coal imports.

The Tepco-Chubu venture will be part of the national effort to break the high-cost formula of LNG pricing that ironically Japan helped create in the 1960s to encourage Middle Eastern and Asian countries develop their natural gas reserves. The two companies consume an annual total 40 million tons of LNG and 20 million tons of coal.

Like many Japanese companies, the power generators have suffered financially since the loss of their country’s nuclear energy source. Tepco, still struggling to plug Fukushima’s radiation leak, has to rely on substantial financial support from the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to stay afloat while Nagoya-based Chubu Electric has been operating at a loss the last three years from having to pay between US$15 and $20 per million BTU for LNG imports.

The joint venture will likely focus on procuring and developing energy resources from North America and Australia while reducing dependence on Japan’s traditional suppliers from increasingly politically unstable producing countries in the Middle East and Asia.

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MIDDLE EAST: IMF holds out hope for region and North Africa to stage “fragile” recovery despite worsening conflicts

(EnergyAsia, October 29 2014, Wednesday) — Against the odds, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that the world’s most politically volatile region will experience faster economic growth over the next two years. The fund expects the combined economies of the Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan and Afghanistan to grow by 2.7% this year and…

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MALAYSIA: Petronas awards EPC management contract for Johor refinery-petrochemical project as Canada LNG terminal prospects dim

(EnergyAsia, October 28 2014, Tuesday) — Malaysia’s state energy firm Petronas is pushing ahead with its proposed US$16-billion refinery-petrochemical complex in Johor state, further dimming the prospects for its troubled proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in western Canada. Last week, PRPC Utilities and Facilities Sdn Bhd, a secondary Petronas subsidiary, awarded an engineering, procurement…

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INDONESIA: LNG imports set to surge, BP awards contract for US$12 billion expansion of project

(EnergyAsia, October 27 2014, Monday) — Indonesia is preparing to meet an increase in domestic natural gas consumption through new supply contracts and BP’s award of a major contract for the US$12 billion expansion of the Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in West Papua province. In the country’s largest domestic LNG deal, energy regulator…

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MARKETS: US crude exports reached new high of 401,000 b/d in July, further gains seen

(EnergyAsia, October 27 2014, Monday) — With domestic crude production at their highest levels since 1986, the US raised its export of domestically produced crude oil in July to a 57-year high of 401,000 b/d, a figure that far exceeds Australia’s entire production. This together with a “modest” volume of Canadian crude that the US…

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INDIA: Modi looks to international firms to develop and mine domestic coal reserves

(EnergyAsia, October 24 2014, Friday) — In a bold move to solve India’s worsening decade-old domestic energy crisis, the five-month-old government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made a surprise move to free up the domestic coal sector by allowing international firms to develop and mine the country’s sizeable deposits. The Coal Mines (Special Provisions)…

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INDIA: UK hedge fund TCI sells off entire stake in Coal India Limited

(EnergyAsia, October 23 2014, Thursday) — UK hedge fund TCI has sold off its entire 1.8% stake in Coal India Limited after failing in its repeat attempts to reform one of the world’s largest coal mining firms. According to local press reports, the firm sold off its remaining 160,000 shares last week that was part…

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RUSSIA: Rosneft, CNPC to speed up oil refinery project, launch LNG cooperation

(EnergyAsia, October 21 2014, Tuesday) — Russia’s largest energy firm, Rosneft, said it and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) have agreed to expand their strategic partnership by venturing into liquefied natural gas projects, and accelerating the joint construction of a long-delayed oil refinery in China and development of upstream projects in Russia. Rosneft CEO Igor…

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INDIA: Modi government expects to soon begin auction of licences for 214 coal blocks

(EnergyAsia, October 21 2014, Tuesday) — The Indian government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi expects to soon begin auctioning off the mining and development licences for 214 coal blocks that were among 218 cancelled by the Supreme Court last month. Speaking to the local media last week, Financial Services Secretary G.S. Sandhu said the five-month-old…

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SINGAPORE: PacificLight Power registers power plant with UN to earn carbon credits

(EnergyAsia, October 20 2014, Monday) — PacificLight Power Pte Ltd (PLP) said it has secured Singapore’s largest project to earn carbon emissions credits following the registration of its S$1.2 billion power plant under the UN’s clean development mechanism to fight climate change. (US$1=S$1.27). The company owns and operates the 800MW state-of-the-art combined cycle gas turbine…

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MARKETS: Crude oil prices rebound after Brent skids to four-year low

(EnergyAsia, October 17 2014, Thursday) — Oil prices rebounded sharply on the overnight markets as traders closed out their positions ahead of the expiry of crude options and futures contracts in New York and London. North Sea Brent crude skidded to a near four-year low of US$82.60 a barrel on Wednesday before surging to a…

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AUSTRALIA: Caltex starts up fuel terminal converted from shut-down refinery at Kurnell

(EnergyAsia, October 16 2014, Wednesday) —- Caltex Australia said it has completed the two-year conversion of its 58-year-old oil refinery at Kurnell in Sydney into the country’s largest fuels import terminal this week. With the loss of the 124,500-b/d refinery, Caltex, half-owned by US major Chevron, will be left with only the Lytton plant in…

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RUSSIA: Gazprom making progress to implement gas export agreement with China

(EnergyAsia, October 15 2014, Wednesday) — Nearly five months after signing a world-record US$400 billion agreement to sell natural gas to China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), Russia’s Gazprom said it is advancing on technical and banking arrangements towards implementing the deal from 2019. On Monday, the two state-owned companies announced they had signed a technical…

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INDIA: Power shortages continue as coal supply crisis extends into the Modi era

(EnergyAsia, October 14 2014, Tuesday) — Elected on high hopes that it would revive India’s stuttering economy, the five-month-old government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has yet to show that it has a plan to solve the country’s worsening power supply shortages that contributed to the previous government’s downfall. The sharp decline in global oil,…

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INDIA: ICVL completes buy-out of Mozambique coal assets from Rio Tinto

(EnergyAsia, October 13 2014, Monday) — India’s state-owned International Coal Ventures Private Limited (ICVL) has completed its acquisition of European miner Rio Tinto’s coal assets in Mozambique. Rio Tinto said the US$50 million sale, announced on July 30, was completed following the fulfilment of all conditions needed for regulatory approvals. The assets, which the firm…

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CANADA: Petronas “encouraged” but warns BC government it may still “defer” troubled LNG project by 15 years

(EnergyAsia, October 10 2014, Friday) — Faced with the possibility of having to cancel its proposed C$9-to-C$11 billion liquefied natural gas plant in Canada, Malaysia’s state energy firm Petronas said it is “encouraged” by high-level talks with British Columbia provincial government leaders. This week, the company’s President and CEO Shamsul Azhar Abbas held several meetings…

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MARKETS: EIA says oil prices declining on weak demand, increased supply

(EnergyAsia, October 9 2014, Thursday) — North Sea Brent crude oil prices have been on an extended weak run trading below US$100 a barrel since September 5, even slipping below US$94 to its lowest level in more than two years. Ironically, Brent began falling after hitting a peak of US$115 a barrel on June 19…

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INDIA: Economy catches break from falling energy prices

(EnergyAsia, October 8 2014, Wednesday) — India remains deeply mired in an energy supply crisis, but for now, it is at least reaping the benefits of an unexpectedly prolonged weakness in global oil, gas and coal prices. Since reaching a peak of US$115 a barrel in June, Brent crude prices have plunged to a two-year…

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SINGAPORE: SGX on course to offer electricity futures trading with takeover of electricity market operator EMC

(EnergyAsia, October 7 2014, Tuesday) — Singapore Exchange (SGX) is on course to offer electricity and energy futures trading after paying S$23 million to complete the takeover of the remaining 51% stake in the nation’s electricity market operator. (US$1=S$1.27). SGX, which bought a 49% in Energy Market Co (EMC) in August 2012, had announced its…

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MARKETS: Global oil demand growth continues to weaken despite the attraction of lower oil prices

(EnergyAsia, October 3 2014, Friday) — The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand growth to weaken over the next two years even after Brent crude’s sustained weak run below US$100 a barrel. Instead of inducing fresh buying, the oil market’s collapse — as Brent dipped below the US$100-mark for the first time since…

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MARKETS: EIA raises supply outlook, makes little change in latest forecast for global oil demand for 2014 and 2015

(EnergyAsia, October 3 2014, Friday) — The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecasts for global oil supply over the next two years while retaining its previous month’s prediction for consumption growth to remain little changed. In its September short-term outlook report, the agency said it expects global liquid fuels production to rise…

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MARKETS: OPEC boosts global oil demand forecast for 2014 and 2015

(EnergyAsia, October 1 2014, Wednesday) — Despite keeping unchanged its outlook for the global economy, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its latest monghtly forecast for global oil demand for 2014 and 2015. In its September report, the cartel said it expects the world to consume 91.19 million b/d in 2014 and…

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