(EnergyAsia, December 21, 2017, Thursday) — India will continue to outpace China and remain as Asia’s fastest growing major economy and energy consumer, according to the World Bank.
Citing the work of analysts, the bank said it expects India to be the world’s fastest-growing economy over the 2015-to-2040 period.
In its latest report on the commodities market, the bank said the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) had significantly under-estimated India’s explosive growth potential in a forecast issued in 1999.
“The EIA (had) projected that India’s GDP would grow by an average 5.2% per year from 2000 to 2010,” said the World Bank.
“However, India’s GDP actually grew by an estimated 7.4% per year over that period.”
As a result, the EIA’s 1999 forecast for India’s energy consumption to reach 21 quadrillion Btu in 2010 was about 5% below the actual figure.
The World Bank also observed that the EIA’s projections for China had proved too conservative.
In its 1990 energy outlook, the EIA had forecast China’s economy to grow by an annual 4.5% rate from 1990 to 2000, and by 4.2% from 2000 to 2010. Instead, China’s GDP grew by more than 10.4% per year from 1990 to 2010.
As a result, the EIA’s projection for Chinese energy consumption to reach 38 quadrillion Btu in 2010 was about one-third of the 100 quadrillion Btu actual figure.