(EnergyAsia, December 27 2011, Tuesday) — International buyers of Indonesian liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been warned to brace for further cutbacks as production is forecast to fall by another 28% next year.

Oil and gas regulator BPMigas said Indonesia’s three main LNG export terminals at Bontang, Arun and Aech may be able to produce a total of only 262 cargoes down from this year’s target of 365 cargoes. With 30 cargoes allocated to domestic customers, Indonesia will have only 235 cargoes to supply to its term customers in Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan.

For 2011, the country is expected to produce 365 LNG cargoes, down 15% from last year, said. Each cargo weighs between 125,000 and 175,000 tons.

The Bontang terminal in East Kalimantan will be the most affected as Total Indonesie, which accounts for 30% of the country’s gas output and two-thirds of LNG exports, expects production at its mature Mahakam block to continue to decline. The company, a subsidiary of the French major, could see a 5% drop in its natural gas production for 2011.