(EnergyAsia, May 25 2015, Monday) — Crude prices are holding onto recent gains as the market is divided between reports of the growing global oil surplus and escalation in Middle East violence with the Islamic State (ISIS) expanding its territorial control and launching a first attack inside Saudi Arabia.


US WTI is trading just below US$60 a barrel, having broken through this psychological level in early May for the first time since December while Brent is holding at around the US$65 mark.

The world’s three leading energy agencies, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA), have once again separately raised their forecasts for global demand in their latest monthly reports.

In its May report, OPEC said it expects global demand to grow by 1.29% this year to 92.5 million b/d, up from its April forecast of 92.45 million b/d and 92.36 million b/d in March.

“The slight upward revision to the 2015 growth figure mainly reflects expectations of uptick in oil requirements in (developed) America,” said OPEC.

The cartel lowered its forecast for global economic growth for 2015 to 3.3% from its previous call for 3.4%. It downgraded the growth outlook for the US to 2.6% from 2.9% and China from 7% to 6.9%, while keeping unchanged its forecasts for Japan and the Eurozone. It also kept its outlook for Russia (-3.2%) and India (7.5%).

Global supply will continue to grow as neither the Saudi Arabia-led cartel nor non-OPEC producers will reduce operations for the rest of the year. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports reached their highest level in nearly a decade in March, according to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). At nearly 7.9 million b/d, it was just slightly less than the previous high of over 7.96 million b/d reached in November 2005, underlining the kingdom’s refusal to back down from a fight for global market share.

Non-OPEC production will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate, rising by more than 2.2% to 57.49 million b/d this year, according to the cartel. In 2014, non-OPEC producers, led by the US, boosted supply by 3.65% to 56.22 million b/d.

For now, traders are ignoring the likely impact of ISIS’s expanding reach and the worsening violence in the Middle East including the growing Saudi Arabia-Iran proxy conflict in Yemen.

On May 22, ISIS carried out its first major attack in Saudi Arabia when a suicide bomber blew himself and more than 20 people up in a mosque in the oil-rich province of Qatif. The attack has sent shock waves across the Arab world as the Sunni bomber, a Saudi citizen, had attacked a Shia mosque packed with worshippers that could lead to retaliation and all-out sectarian conflict in the kingdom which till now has been spared the violence common in other parts of the Middle East.

Saudi-backed Sunni are fighting to push out Iran-backed Shia forces in Yemen. Iran is also cooperating with the US and Iraq to stop the Sunni-back ISIS from expanding beyond their base in Syria and Iran.

 

May 2015

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.09 24.17   24.39   0.91

Europe                       13.69 13.51   13.50   -0.07

OECD Asia                   8.32   8.14    8.01   -1.60

Total OECD                 46.09   45.82   45.90   0.17

 

Other Asia                 11.10   11.31 11.57   2.30

China                          10.07   10.46   10.78   3.06

Latin America                        6.50  6.69    6.86   2.54

Middle East               7.81    8.06    8.28   2.73

Africa                           3.67    3.78    3.87   2.38

FSU                              4.49    4.54    4.58   0.88

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.67   3.08

Total world                 90.37   91.32   92.50   1.29

Previous estimate   90.33   91.28   92.45   1.28

 

 

April 2015

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.09 24.17   24.39   0.91

Europe                       13.70 13.51   13.45   -0.44

OECD Asia                   8.32   8.14    8.01   -1.60

Total OECD                 46.10   45.82   45.85   0.07

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.27 11.53   2.30

China                          10.07   10.46   10.77   2.96

Latin America                        6.50  6.69    6.89   2.99

Middle East               7.81    8.06    8.30   2.98

Africa                           3.67    3.78    3.87   2.38

FSU                              4.49    4.54    4.58   0.88

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.67   3.08

Total world                 90.33   91.28   92.45   1.28

Previous estimate   90.25   91.20   92.36   1.27

 

March 2015

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.09 24.19   24.39   0.83

Europe                       13.64 13.45   13.36   -0.67

OECD Asia                   8.33   8.14    8.02   -1.47

Total OECD                 46.06   45.78   45.77   -0.02

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.28 11.53   2.22

China                          10.07   10.46   10.77   2.96

Latin America                        6.50  6.69    6.89   2.99

Middle East               7.81    8.06    8.34   3.47

Africa                           3.63    3.74    3.83   2.41

FSU                              4.49    4.54    4.58   0.88

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.25   91.20   92.36   1.27

Previous estimate   90.20   91.15   92.32   1.28

 

 

February 2015

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.08 24.18   24.39   0.87

Europe                       13.61 13.40   13.31   -0.67

OECD Asia                   8.32   8.14    8.02   -1.47

Total OECD                 46.01   45.72   45.72   0

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.27 11.52   2.22

China                          10.07   10.46   10.77   2.96

Latin America                        6.50  6.70    6.90   2.99

Middle East               7.81    8.06    8.34   3.47

Africa                           3.63    3.74    3.83   2.41

FSU                              4.49    4.54    4.58   0.88

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.20   91.15   92.32   1.28

Previous estimate   90.20   91.13   92.26   1.24

 

 

January 2015

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.08 24.18   24.37   0.79

Europe                       13.61 13.40   13.31   -0.67

OECD Asia                   8.32   8.14    8.02   -1.47

Total OECD                 46.01   45.72   45.70   -0.07

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.28 11.53   2.22

China                          10.07   10.45   10.75   2.87

Latin America                        6.50  6.71    6.91   2.98

Middle East               7.81    8.07    8.35   3.47

Africa                           3.63    3.73    3.82   2.41

FSU                              4.49    4.54    4.58   0.88

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.20   91.15   92.30   1.26

Previous estimate   90.20   91.13   92.26   1.24

 

December 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.08 24.15   24.31   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.39   13.30   -0.67

OECD Asia                   8.32   8.16    8.04   -1.47

Total OECD                 46.01   45.71   45.64   -1.53

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.28 11.52   2.13

China                          10.07   10.42   10.73   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.78    6.93   2.21

Middle East               7.81    8.09    8.38   3.58

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.20   91.13   92.26   1.24

Previous estimate   90.14   91.19   92.38   1.31

 

 

May 2015

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.3       1.8       2.4       -0.1      0.9                   7.4

2015F              3.3       2.1       2.6       0.8       1.3                   6.9

 

April 2015

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.3       1.8       2.4       -0.1      0.9                   7.4

2015F              3.4       2.2       2.9       0.8       1.3                   7.0

 

 

March 2015

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.3       1.8       2.4       0.0       0.9                   7.4

2015F              3.4       2.2       2.9       1.2       1.2                   7.0

 

 

February 2015

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.4       0.2       0.9                   7.4

2015F              3.4       2.2       2.9       1.2       1.2                   7.0

 

January 2015

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.4       0.2       0.9                   7.4

2015F              3.6       2.2       2.9       1.2       1.2                   7.2

 

 

May 2015

OPEC on non-OPEC oil supply, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Latest estimate        54.31   56.48   3.99     57.16   1.20

Previous estimate   54.32   56.49   3.99     57.17   1.20

 

April 2015

OPEC on non-OPEC oil supply, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Latest estimate        54.32   56.49   3.99     57.17   1.20

Previous estimate   54.29   56.33   3.76     57.16   1.47

 

March 2015

OPEC on non-OPEC oil supply, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Latest estimate        54.29   56.33   3.76     57.16   1.47

Previous estimate   54.24   56.23   3.67     57.09   1.53

 

February 2015

OPEC on non-OPEC oil supply, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Latest estimate        54.24   56.23   3.67     57.09   1.53

Previous estimate   54.24   56.22   3.65     57.49   2.26

 

January 2015

OPEC on non-OPEC oil supply, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Latest estimate        54.24   56.22   3.65     57.49   2.26

Previous estimate   54.23   55.95   3.17     57.31   2.43