(EnergyAsia, December 29 2014, Monday) — Along with weaker oil prices, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reduced its forecasts for both global oil demand and supply for 2015 in its December report compared with the previous month.
The agency expects the world to consume 92.32 million b/d in 2015, down from its November forecast of 92.50 million b/d, and to produce 92.75 million b/d instead of 92.91 million b/d.
For 2014, it raised its global demand forecast to 91.44 million b/d compared with 91.38 million b/d, while keeping the supply outlook almost unchanged at 91.96 million b/d.
The EIA said it expects global oil inventories to continue to build over the next year, keeping downward pressure on prices.
It expects the Brent crude oil price to average US$68 per barrel in 2015, down US$15 from its November call while WTI will trade at an average US$63 instead of US$78. It sees Brent prices reaching a 2015 monthly average low of US$63 from March through May before recovering through the rest of the year to average US$73 during the fourth quarter.
“The discount of WTI to Brent crude oil is forecast to widen slightly from current levels, averaging US$5 per barrel in 2015,” said the agency.
Despite expectations among analysts that China’s economy is slowing down, the EIA retained its forecasts for the country’s oil demand unchanged at 10.98 million b/d for this year, and 11.34 million b/d in 2015.
Instead, the agency ploughed back its forecasts for North America’s oil demand for 2014 and 2015, although it did raise its expectation for US consumption to rise by 140,000 b/d in 2015 after staying flat in 2014.
Japan and Europe will continue to experience lower oil consumption the next two years. The EIA expects Japan’s consumption, which fell by 160,000 b/d in 2013, to decline by the same amount this year and a further 140,000 b/d in 2015.
“Japan is expected to use less fuel oil in the electricity sector as the country returns some nuclear power plants to service in 2015 and increases the use of natural gas and coal to generate electricity,” it said.
The agency is calling for developed Europe’s consumption, which fell by 150,000 b/d in 2013, to fall by 120,000 b/d this year and a further 140,000 b/d in 2015.
With global supply continuing to outpace consumption, the EIA is forecasting the world stock build to average 400,000 b/d in 2015. Most of that will be concentrated in the first half of the year at an average rate of 700,000 b/d.
The EIA is calling for Saudi Arabia’s production to stay above nine million b/d in 2015, down significantly from this year’s average of 9.6 million b/d. As a result, the US, which is projected to produce 9.3 million b/d, could be supplying as much oil as OPEC’s leader.
Due to ongoing conflicts in Libya, Nigeria, Iran, and Iraq, EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall to 29.8 million b/d in 2014 and to 29.6 million b/d in 2015. In 2013, OPEC produced 29.9 million b/d and 30.9 million in 2012.
Dec 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d
2013 2014 * y/y % 2015 * y/y %
- America 23.44 23.39 -0.21 23.51 0.51
China 10.61 10.98 3.49 11.34 3.28
Others 56.43 57.07 1.13 57.47 0.70
TOTAL 90.48 91.44 1.06 92.32 0.96
*forecast
Nov 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d
2013 2014 * y/y % 2015 * y/y %
- America 23.44 23.34 -0.43 23.48 0.60
China 10.61 10.98 3.49 11.34 3.28
Others 56.43 57.06 1.11 57.68 1.09
TOTAL 90.48 91.38 0.99 92.50 1.23
*forecast
Oct 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d
2013 2014 * y/y % 2015 * y/y %
- America 23.40 23.36 -0.17 23.56 0.86
China 10.61 10.98 3.49 11.35 3.37
Others 56.44 57.13 1.22 57.80 1.17
TOTAL 90.45 91.47 1.13 92.71 1.36
*forecast
Sept 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d
2013 2014 * y/y % 2015 * y/y %
- America 23.38 23.35 -0.13 23.54 0.81
China 10.61 10.98 3.49 11.41 3.92
Others 56.52 57.22 1.24 58.03 1.42
TOTAL 90.51 91.55 1.15 92.98 1.56
*forecast
Dec 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d
2013 2014 * y/y % 2015 * y/y %
OPEC 36.03 35.96 -0.19 35.92 -0.11
Non-OPEC 54.13 56.00 3.45 56.84 1.50
– US 12.34 13.90 12.64 14.89 7.12
TOTAL 90.16 91.96 2.00 92.75 0.86
*forecast
Nov 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d
2013 2014 * y/y % 2015 * y/y %
OPEC 36.03 35.92 -0.31 35.93 0.02
Non-OPEC 54.16 56.03 3.45 56.98 1.70
– US 12.36 13.86 12.14 14.95 7.86
TOTAL 90.18 91.95 1.96 92.91 1.04
*forecast
Oct 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d
2013 2014 * y/y % 2015 * y/y %
OPEC 36.03 35.78 -0.69 35.51 -0.75
Non-OPEC 54.12 55.98 3.44 57.15 2.09
– US 12.34 13.82 11.99 15.05 8.90
TOTAL 90.15 91.76 1.79 92.67 0.99
*forecast
Sept 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d
2013 2014 * y/y % 2015 * y/y %
OPEC 36.02 35.77 -0.69 35.86 0.25
Non-OPEC 54.08 55.91 3.39 57.16 2.24
– US 12.35 13.78 11.58 14.99 8.78
TOTAL 90.10 91.68 1.75 93.02 1.46
*forecast