(EnergyAsia, October 29 2013, Tuesday) — The International Energy Agency (IEA) has again raised its global oil demand forecast for 2013 and 2014, citing in its October oil market report the improving economic outlook in North America, China and Europe, and continued strong growth in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
The Paris-based agency expects global oil consumption to rise to 92.12 million b/d in 2014 and to 91 million b/d in 2013, compared with its September forecasts for 92.02 million b/d and 90.91 million for the two respective years.
In August, the IEA had expected the world to consume 90.84 million b/d in 2013 and 91.95 million b/d in 2014.
Oil prices have been supported by a sharp decline in OPEC production that led to a 625,000 b/d decline in global supplies 91.12 million b/d in September, said the IEA.
However, prices could come under pressure from rising non-OPEC production, particularly from the US and Canada, as well as the recent reduction in political tensions between the US and its enemies in Syria and Iran.
The IEA expects non‐OPEC production to rise 1.1 million b/d to 54.7 million b/d, and by a further 1.7 million b/d next year.
In the third quarter of 2013, the IEA said non-OPEC’s total output from crude, liquids, biofuel and processing gains surged by 1.7 million b/d year-on-year for their steepest annual growth for any quarter in over 10 years. Throw in OPEC natural gas liquids (NGL) and the figure tops 1.85 million b/d.
But these increases did little to dull the strength of the oil markets due to production outages in the Middle East which took Brent crude prices to highs of around $117 per barrel. Prices have since receded but remain elevated.
“OPEC crude supplies slipped below 30 million b/d for the first time in almost two years, led by steep drops in Libya and Iraq,” said the IEA.
“Output fell by 645,000 b/d, to 29.99 million b/d, despite Saudi output exceeding 10 million b/d for a third month running. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ was raised by 100,000 b/d, to 29.6 million b/d, for the current quarter.”