(EnergyAsia, October 28, Wednesday) — The International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents the world’s leading oil consuming countries, has again raised its forecast for world oil demand for 2009 and 2010 on account of improving global economic conditions.
In its latest forecast, the Paris-based agency has forecast the world to consume 84.6 million b/d of oil this year, and 86.1 million b/d next year. Last month, the IEA had forecast world oil demand at 84.4 million b/d in 2009 and 85.7 million b/d the following year. World oil demand reached a peak of 86.3 million b/d in 2008, and started falling with the collapse of the world economy this year.
It said world oil supply rose by 31,000 b/d to 84.9 million b/d in September, driven largely by non-OPEC supplies. While non-OPEC countries produced an extra 1.6 million b/d of crude for the month over year-ago levels, OPEC restrained supply, said the IEA, which estimated the cartel’s spare production capacity as exceeding 5.4 million b/d.
The agency expects non-OPEC output to continue rising for the rest of 2009, averaging 51 million b/d this year and 51.6 million b/d next year. It expects non-OPEC output to grow by more than 380,000 b/d in 2009 and 550,000 b/d in 2010.
It noted that crude oil prices remained in the $65-75/barrel range in September, and rose to $68-72 in early October.