(EnergyAsia, August 27 2013, Tuesday) — Reflecting a more cautious outlook on the world economy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has tempered its latest forecasts for global oil consumption over the next two years.
In its latest August report, the IEA raised its forecast for this year’s oil consumption growth rate to 1% compared with 0.92% previously, while reducing next year’s forecast rate to 1.22% from 1.33%.
It now sees the world consuming 90.84 million b/d this year, up from July’s forecast for 90.77 million b/d, and 91.95 million b/d in 2014, down from the previous call for 91.95 million b/d.
The IEA’s projections have been influenced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently slashed its forecasts for world economic growth from 3.3% to 3.1% for 2013, and from 4% to 3.8% next year.
On the supply front, the IEA said North America helped boost July’s global oil supply month-over-month by around 575,000 b/d to 91.85 million b/d. But, the agency also highlighted concerns over continued supply disruptions in Iraq and Libya that could reduce OPEC’s total output for the rest of the year. In July, the two countries lost a total of 170,000 b/d from a combination of political unrest, labour strikes and sabotage of oil infrastructure.
“OPEC crude oil supplies edged down by 165,000 b/d in July to 30.41 million b/d on supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq despite higher Saudi output,” said the Paris-based agency.