(EnergyAsia, December 23 2014, Wednesday) — OPEC’s latest monthly report on the oil markets contains a paradoxical call for faster global economic growth and weaker oil demand.


Global supply will continue to grow, putting pressure on prices in 2015, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ December report. In mid-December, crude oil prices fell to their lowest levels since mid-2009, with Brent selling for less than US$60 a barrel and US WTI at under US$55

Boosted by the improved outlook for the US and Europe, the cartel raised its forecast for global economic growth to 3.6% in 2015 compared to 3.4% in the November report. It downgraded the outlook for Japan’s economy, underlining the lack of confidence in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies.

After keeping its forecasts for 2014 and 2015 global oil demand largely unchanged the last three months, OPEC reduced both in the December report. It now expects the world to consume 91.13 million b/d this year, down from its previous call for 91.19 million b/d, and 92.26 million b/d in 2015, down from 92.38 million b/d.

OPEC said it expects weaker demand growth in Asia’s developing economies, Latin America and the Middle East over the next two years.

On the other hand, global supply is expected to rise at a faster rate, with non-OPEC producers accounting for the surge to keep oil prices under pressure. The 12-member group has forecast non-OPEC production to rise by 3.17% to 55.95 million b/d in 2014, and by a further 2.43% to 57.31 million b/d next year. In its November report, OPEC had called for non-OPEC supply to reach 55.91 million b/d in 2014 and 57.16 million b/d in 2015.

North America is expected to be the main driver for oil supply growth, followed by Latin America. OPEC expects its members to produce 6.03 million b/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids in 2015, up from 5.83 million b/d in 2014.

December 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.08 24.15   24.31   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.39   13.30   -0.67

OECD Asia                   8.32   8.16    8.04   -1.47

Total OECD                 46.01   45.71   45.64   -1.53

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.28 11.52   2.13

China                          10.07   10.42   10.73   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.78    6.93   2.21

Middle East               7.81    8.09    8.38   3.58

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.20   91.13   92.26   1.24

Previous estimate   90.14   91.19   92.38   1.31

 

November 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.05 24.17   24.33   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.29   8.16    8.06   -1.23

Total OECD                 45.95   45.74   45.73   -0.02

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.41   10.72   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.72    6.95   3.42

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.57

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.14   91.19   92.38   1.31

Previous estimate   90.14   91.19   92.39   1.31

 

October 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.05 24.17   24.33   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.29   8.16    8.06   -1.23

Total OECD                 45.95   45.74   45.73   -0.03

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.41   10.72   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.72    6.95   3.35

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.43

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.65   0.01

Total world                 90.14   91.19   92.39   1.31

Previous estimate   90.14   91.19   92.38   1.30

 

September 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.05 24.19   24.35   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.29   8.23    8.06   -2.07

Total OECD                 45.95   45.77   45.75   -0.04

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.39   10.70   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.72    6.95   3.42

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.57

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.63    0.64   0.01

Total world                 90.14   91.19   92.38   1.30

Previous estimate   90.01   91.11   92.32   1.32

 

August 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   23.96 24.13   24.34   0.87

Europe                       13.59 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.36   8.23    8.13   -1.22

Total OECD                 45.91   45.77   45.81   0.09

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.39   10.70   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.73    6.95   3.27

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.57

Africa                           3.55    3.64    3.71   1.92

FSU                              4.48    4.53    4.58   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.63    0.64   0.01

Total world                 90.01   91.11   92.32   1.32

Previous estimate   90.01   91.13   92.35   1.34

 

December 2014

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.2       0.4       0.8                   7.4

2015                3.6       2.1       2.6       1.2       1.1                   7.2

 

November 2014

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.1       0.8       0.7                   7.4

2015                3.4       2.0       2.6       1.2       1.1                   7.2

 

October 2014

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.1       0.8       0.7                   7.4

2015                3.4       2.0       2.6       1.2       1.1                   7.2

 

 

December 2014

Forecasts: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2014 and 2015, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Non-OPEC                   54.23   55.95   3.17     57.31   2.43

Previous estimate   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

 

November 2014

Forecasts: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2014 and 2015, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Non-OPEC                   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

Previous estimate   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

 

October 2014

Forecasts: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2014 and 2015, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Non-OPEC                   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

Previous estimate   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24