(EnergyAsia, August 27 2013, Tuesday) — The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its forecasts for global oil consumption for 2013 and 2014, building on last month’s observation that the world has regained its oil appetite after four years of slow growth.
The 12-member cartel now expects the world to consume a record 90.75 million b/d of oil in 2014, up from its July forecast for 90.68 million b/d, while this year’s consumption is seen at 89.71 million b/d compared with 89.64 million b/d previously.
North America and the emerging economies of Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa will overcome the projected declines in Europe and Japan to drive projected global oil consumption growth of 0.89% this year and 1.01% in 2014.
OPEC’s latest forecast in its August market report affirms its previous month’s comment that the world oil markets are experiencing a significant turnaround due largely to a slightly improving global economy.
“This revision is based on actual and preliminary data for the first half of the year, primarily from OECD America, which experienced an upward revision of 32,000 b/d for the year,” said OPEC.
The Middle East and Latin America, which together account for more than 15% of the world oil market, will be the growth leaders over the next two years. The troubled Middle East will show the highest oil demand growth rates of 3.81% in 2014 2014 and 3.82% this year, while Latin America consumption is expected to grow at an average 3.7% over the next two years.
After years of leading the growth charts, China and developing Asia will move into third and fourth places respectively. China’s consumption is seen rising 3.39% this year and 3.28% in 2014, while developing Asia’s will slow down to 2% and 2.35% for the two respective years.
In its June report, OPEC had kept its forecast for global oil demand virtually unchanged for five consecutive months at around 89.65 million b/d, rising by 780,000 b/d from last year.