(EnergyAsia, December 2 2013, Monday) — Citing improving economic conditions in the US and Europe, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has slightly raised its November forecast for global oil consumption for 2013 and 2014.
It now expects this year’s global oil demand to rise by 860,000 b/d, up from last month’s call for 820,000 b/d, to reach 89.78 million b/d.
For 2014, the cartel said it sees oil demand rising 1.04 million b/d to 90.82 million b/d, compared with its previous forecast of 90.78 million b/d.
It attributed the positive revision to improving prospects out of the developed economies in the US and Europe, which will more than offset a slowdown in the developing economies, particularly in Africa where oil demand growth forecast has been trimmed by 10,000 b/d from the October report.
OPEC kept unchanged its forecast for the world economy to grow by 2.9% in 2013 and 3.5% next year.
The developed economies are expected to grow by a collective 1.9% in 2014, up sharply from this year’s projected 1.2%.
India’s expected growth has been slashed to 4.7% for 2013 from 5% in the October report, and to 5.6% in 2014 compared with 5.8% previously.
“China’s recent stimulus efforts and rising exports have led to upwardly revised growth of 7.8% this year, from 7.6% previously, and 7.8% next year, from 7.7%. Although the global economy continues to improve, the pace of growth remains sluggish and near-term developments will need close monitoring,” said OPEC.
OPEC: World Oil Demand in million b/d
2012 2013 % change 2014 2014/13 change
November 88.92 89.78 0.97% 90.82 1.16%
October 88.92 89.74 0.92% 90.78 1.16%
September 88.92 89.74 0.92% 90.77 1.15%
August 88.92 89.71 0.89% 90.75 1.01%
July report 88.87 89.64 0.87% 90.68 1.01%
OPEC: Forecast for world economic growth, %
World OECD US Japan Euro China India
2013 2.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 -0.3 7.8 4.7
2014 3.5 1.9 2.5 1.5 0.7 7.8 5.6