(EnergyAsia, June 2 2014, Monday) — The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept unchanged its May forecast for this year’s global oil demand and economic growth from the previous month.
The cartel retained its previous forecast for global oil consumption at 91.15 million b/d in 2014 and world economic growth at 3.4%.
“Global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.14 million b/d to reach 91.15 mb/d in 2014, unchanged from the previous report. Almost half of annual oil demand growth is seen coming from China and the Middle East. The estimate for world oil demand in 2013 was unchanged at 90.01 million b/d, representing growth of 1.05 million b/d over the previous year,” it said.
On the supply side, OPEC expects production from outside the cartel to increase by 1.38 million b/d this year, up slightly from its previous forecast of 1.35 million b/d. Most of the increase will come from the US and Canada.
It said the world’s spending on exploration and development rose by 5% last year, according to an analysis of the 42 US and international oil and gas companies that accounted for approximately 39% of non-OPEC production. It found that relatively flat oil prices and rising costs have resulted in declining cash flows for these companies over the past two years.
OPEC downgraded the 2014 outlook for US economic growth to 2.4% from its April forecast for 2.7% while raising the Eurozone’s to 1% from 0.8% previously. It kept unchanged its expectations for the growth outlooks in China and Japan at 7.5% and 1.3% respectively.
“The main lift for 2014 growth is seen coming from OECD economies, while emerging markets are slowing. With the most recent weakness in some major OECD economies, mainly the US and Japan, the risk to the global growth forecast is seen currently skewed slightly to the downside,” it said.