(EnergyAsia, March 31 2014, Monday) — Citing what it calls the improving economic and energy demand outlook for North America and Africa, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its estimate for last year’s global oil demand to 90 million b/d and its forecast for 2014’s demand to 91.14 million b/d.

In its previous monthly report for February, the cartel had estimated last year’s global oil demand at 89.89 million b/d and 2014’s at 90.98 million b/d.
OPEC kept its forecast for the world economy to grow by 3.5% this year to follow through on 2013’s 2.9% expansion. China’s economy is seen expanding by 7.7%, down from 7.6% previously.

On the supply side, the cartel raised its estimate for non-OPEC liquids supply for 2013 from the Februrary report by 33,000 b/d to 54.18 million b/d for an increase of 1.33 million b/d over the previous year.

“Non-OPEC supply in 2013 saw strong growth from OECD Americas and minor increases in the former Soviet Union (FSU), Africa, Latin America and China, while all other regions experienced declines,” it said.

“OECD Americas’ oil supply growth estimate of 1.32 million b/d in 2013 was the highest on record, while OECD Europe registered a decline of 200,000 b/d, the Middle East showed a drop of 120,000 b/d, and OECD Asia Pacific and Other Asia experienced a decline of 90,000 b/d and 80,000 b/d, respectively, representing the largest contractions.”

It attributed OECD Americas’ strong production growth to the development of the development of tight oil reserves in the US.

In 2014, non-OPEC supply is seen rising by 1.31 million b/d to average 55.49 million b/d.

OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Venezuela.

March 2014
Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d
2012      2013     2014    2014/13 %
Americas         23.62      23.94     24.13    0.79
Europe         13.77      13.59    13.44    -1.11
Asia Pacific         8.58     8.36     8.23    -1.55
Total OECD         45.98     45.89     45.79    -0.22

Other Asia         10.86      11.06     11.29    2.08
China             9.74     10.07     10.40    3.28
Latin America         6.27      6.49     6.73    3.81
Middle East         7.59     7.87     8.17    3.81
Africa             3.46     3.50     3.55    1.42
FSU             4.41     4.48     4.56    1.79
Other Europe         0.64     0.64     0.64    -0.01
Total world         88.96     90.00     91.14    1.27
Previous estimate     88.92     89.86     90.91    1.06