(EnergyAsia, November 26 2014, Wednesday) — The weakest oil market in four years is having no impact on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) views on the world economy and oil supply-demand balances. For the fourth consecutive month, OPEC has kept unchanged its forecasts for the world economy to grow by 3.2% this year and 3.4% in 2015. It has also kept its expectation for global oil consumption to reach 91.19 million b/d and 92.39 million b/d, unchanged since September.

As the cartel prepares for its ministeral meeting in Vienna meeting Thursday, WTI crude has lost grip of support at US$75/barrel and Brent at US$80 amid warnings that they could easily drop another US$15 if key producing countries, namely Saudi Arabia and the UAE, refuse to slash output.

Some economists have likened the impact of the 30% plunge in oil prices since June to a major tax cut and an unexpected stimulus for the slowing world economy. The retail, utility and transportaion sectors are clearly benefitting from sharply lower fuel prices, but there are concerns that oil and gas producing countries, including non-OPEC ones like Canada, the UK, Australia and Norway, will have less to invest and spend from next year as a result of reduced revenues. The world’s leading oil consumer, the US, will pay a price too as many of its heavily-indebted shale-based producing firms which have contributed to the country’s reduced energy import dependence will not be able to operate at US$70 oil.

The cartel expects non-OPEC oil supply to grow by 1.68 million b/d to average 55.91 million b/d in 2014, and by a further 1.24million b/d to reach 57.15 million b/d next year. Most of the supply growth will come from the US, Canada, Brazil and China.

OPEC said it expects its combined output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids to average 6.03 million b/d in 2015 and 5.83 million b/d in 2014.

November 2014

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.1       0.8       0.7                   7.4

2015                3.4       2.0       2.6       1.2       1.1                   7.2

 

October 2014

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.1       0.8       0.7                   7.4

2015                3.4       2.0       2.6       1.2       1.1                   7.2

 

November 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.05 24.17   24.33   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.29   8.16    8.06   -1.23

Total OECD                 45.95   45.74   45.73   -0.02

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.41   10.72   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.72    6.95   3.42

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.57

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                

Previous estimate   90.14   91.19   92.39   1.31

 

October 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.05 24.17   24.33   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.29   8.16    8.06   -1.23

Total OECD                 45.95   45.74   45.73   -0.03

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.41   10.72   2.98

Latin America                        6.50 6.72    6.95   3.35

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.43

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.65   0.01

Total world                 90.14   91.19   92.39   1.31

Previous estimate   90.14   91.19   92.38   1.30

 

September 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.05 24.19   24.35   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.29   8.23    8.06   -2.07

Total OECD                 45.95   45.77   45.75   -0.04

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.39   10.70   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.72    6.95   3.42

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.57

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.63    0.64   0.01

Total world                 90.14   91.19   92.38   1.30

Previous estimate   90.01   91.11   92.32   1.32

 

August 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   23.96 24.13   24.34   0.87

Europe                       13.59 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.36   8.23    8.13   -1.22

Total OECD                 45.91   45.77   45.81   0.09

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.39   10.70   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.73    6.95   3.27

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.57

Africa                           3.55    3.64    3.71   1.92

FSU                              4.48    4.53    4.58   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.63    0.64   0.01

Total world                 90.01   91.11   92.32   1.32

Previous estimate   90.01   91.13   92.35   1.34

 

 

November 2014

Forecasts: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2014 and 2015, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Non-OPEC                   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

Previous estimate   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

 

October 2014

Forecasts: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2014 and 2015, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Non-OPEC                   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

Previous estimate   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24