(EnergyAsia, October 30 2013, Wednesday) — As evidence of the world’s economic recovery stacks up going into the final quarter, the US government has raised its forecast for global oil demand for 2013 to grow by one million b/d a new all-time high of 90.26 million b/d.
The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast in its latest October report eclipsed its February call for the world to consume 90.21 million b/d, and the September projection of 90.06 million b/d.
It said China, the Middle East, Central and South America will lead the consumption growth to more than offset a projected 200,000 b/d decline in the oil demand of the developed economies.
But, it was more restrained looking out into 2014 amid rising doubts as to whether the economic recovery in the US and Europe are sustainable.
Still, the EIA sees world oil demand rising by a further 1.2 million b/d to reach 91.43 million b/d in 2014. While this figure is a new high, it will still be lower than the agency’s forecast of 91.62 million b/d issued in the February report.
2012 2013 * y/y % 2014 * y/y %
N. America 23.00 23.21 0.91 23.27 0.26
China 10.28 10.69 3.99 11.13 4.12
Others 56.01 56.36 0.62 57.03 1.19
TOTAL 89.29 90.26 1.09 91.43 1.30
On the supply side, the EIA said non‐OPEC liquid fuels production will increase by 1.5 million b/d in both 2013 and 2014 to help offset a projected decline in OPEC’s production to 30.2 million and 29.6 million b/d over the next two years.
North America’s production is seen rising by 1.4 million b/d in 2013 and 1.1 million b/d in 2014 to account for the bulk of non-OPEC supply growth. The EIA said the additional flows will come from onshore tight oil formations in the US and the oil sands in Canada.
Central and South America will raise liquid fuels supply by 100,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d in 2013 and 2014, respectively, driven mainly by increases in Brazil’s offshore, pre-salt oilfields output. EIA expects Malaysia to lead the Asia Pacific region’s 200,000 b/d liquid fuels supply increase in 2014.
OPEC’s liquid fuels production is projected to fall by 800,000 b/d in 2013 and by an additional 300,000 b/d in 2014.
“The declines in 2013 mostly reflect supply outages among some OPEC producers, along with an overall decrease in Saudi Arabia’s production in response to the increase in non-OPEC supply,” said the EIA.