(EnergyAsia, October 31 2014, Friday) — Responding to lower expectations for global economic growth, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reduced its forecasts for both oil demand and supply for 2015 in its latest monthly report. However, it raised its forecast for this year’s global oil supply from its previous report in September.


In its October report, the agency said it expects global liquid fuels production to rise by 1.79% to 91.76 million b/d this year and by less than 1% to 92.67 million b/d. In September, it had called for the world’s crude and liquids supply to reach 91.68 million in 2014 and 93.02 million b/d in 2015.

US production is forecast to surge nearly 9% to 15.05 million b/d in 2015 and by 12% to 13.82 million b/d this year. Canadian production will rise from 4.1 million b/d in 2013 to 4.38 million b/d in 2014 and 4.47 million b/d next year.

The EIA expects OPEC production to slip further with Saudi Arabia leading the brigade to defend market share in the face of falling oil prices. The cartel’s production is seen falling by 0.69% to 35.78 million b/d this year, and by a further 0.75% to 35.51 million b/d. In its September report, the EIA had expected OPEC production to reach 35.86 million b/d in 2015.

Contributing to the recent weakness in oil prices, the EIA noted that production from troubled spots in Libya and Iraq have rebounded, largely unscathed by the recent surge in conflict.

“Iraq’s southern crude oil exports still remain unaffected by the unrest in northern Iraq. In Libya, production averaged 800,000 b/d in September, its highest level in more than one year,” it said, while warning that Libya’s security situation remains precarious.

On the demand side, the EIA expects the world to consume 91.47 million b/d this year and 92.71 million b/d in 2015, significantly lower compared with its August forecasts for 91.55 million b/d and 92.98 million b/d for the two respective years.

The October forecast calls for global oil demand to grow by 1.13% in 2014 and 1.36% in 2015, down from the September predictions of 1.15% and 1.56% for the two years.

The agency has raised its forecast for North America’s oil demand to rise by 0.86% to 23.56 million b/d in 2015 in line with reports of stronger growth in the US economy.

It kept unchanged its prediction for China’s 2014 oil demand at 10.98 million b/d but lowered the 2015 forecast to 11.35 million from its September call for 11.41 million b/d.

Reflecting the oil markets’ weaker sentiments, the EIA expects North Sea Brent crude oil prices to average US$98 a barrel this quarter before recovering to US$102 for 2015.

Oct 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d
2013     2014 *    y/y %    2015 *    y/y %
N. America        23.40     23.36     -0.17    23.56     0.86
China                  10.61      10.98     3.49     11.35      3.37
Others                56.44     57.13       1.22     57.80    1.17
TOTAL              90.45      91.47       1.13     92.71     1.36
*forecast

Sept 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d
2013      2014 *    y/y %    2015 *    y/y %
N. America        23.38     23.35     -0.13      23.54    0.81
China                 10.61       10.98     3.49       11.41      3.92
Others                56.52      57.22     1.24       58.03     1.42
TOTAL               90.51      91.55      1.15       92.98     1.56
*forecast

Oct 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d
2013     2014 *    y/y %    2015 *    y/y %
OPEC             36.03     35.78     -0.69    35.51    -0.75
Non-OPEC    54.12     55.98     3.44    57.15    2.09
– US                12.34     13.82    11.99    15.05    8.90
TOTAL          90.15      91.76     1.79    92.67    0.99
*forecast

Sept 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d
2013     2014 *    y/y %    2015 *    y/y %
OPEC            36.02     35.77     -0.69    35.86    0.25
Non-OPEC  54.08     55.91     3.39    57.16    2.24
– US               12.35    13.78    11.58    14.99    8.78
TOTAL         90.10     91.68     1.75    93.02    1.46
*forecast

 

This entry was posted in News and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.