(EnergyAsia, October 1 2014, Wednesday) — Despite keeping unchanged its outlook for the global economy, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its latest monghtly forecast for global oil demand for 2014 and 2015.

In its September report, the cartel said it expects the world to consume 91.19 million b/d in 2014 and 92.38 million b/d next year. In August, it had forecast global oil demand to reach 91.11 million b/d and 92.32 million b/d for the two respective years.

OPEC expects the world economy to grow by 3.1% and 3.4% over the next two years, unchanged from its previous reports in July and August. The improved outlook for the US economy is expected to offset reductions in the growth rates for Japan and the European Union (EU), while China’s economic growth is seen holding at 7.4% in 2014 and 7.2% in 2015.

On the supply side, the cartel has raised the outlook on non-OPEC oil production by 1.72 million b/d from 2013’s 54.19 million b/d to 55.91 million b/d in 2014 and to 57.16 million b/d in 2015, with the US and Canada responsible for the bulk of the increase.

September 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.05 24.19   24.35   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.29   8.23    8.06   -2.07

Total OECD                 45.95   45.77   45.75   -0.04

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.39   10.70   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.72    6.95   3.42

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.57

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.63    0.64   0.01

Total world                 90.14   91.19   92.38   1.30

Previous estimate   90.01   91.11   92.32   1.32