(EnergyAsia, August 4, Monday) — Guy Carpenter & Company LLC, a leading global risk and reinsurance specialist, said it has published the Updated Prediction of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific for 2008.

This is the second report produced by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Centre at City University of Hong Kong (GCACIC), launched in June.

The report describes how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important predictor of the number of tropical cyclones affecting the western North Pacific and the South China Sea.

While 2007 was a strong La Niña year, 2008 shows a weakening of this event such that the ENSO condition is in a neutral status. Historically, such a condition — La Niña becoming neutral — generally suggests a near-to-above-normal tropical cyclone activity, whereas other predictors indicate a slightly above-normal activity.

When considering all of the predictors, the GCACIC has forecast a normal to slightly above-normal year for all tropical cyclone categories for the entire Western North Pacific during 2008.

As such, the predicted total number of tropical cyclones remains at 30, consistent with April estimates. Similarly, the predicted number of typhoons remains at 19.

“These predictions would suggest that the La Niña event we witnessed in 2007 is unlikely to persist for the rest of the 2008 season,” said James Nash, CEO of Guy Carpenter’s Asia Pacific Region. “Thus, the number of tropical cyclones is expected to be at slightly-above or near-normal levels.”

The GCACIC is a leading regional hub for research on climate-related threats, catastrophic risk assessment and severe climatic event predictions for the Asia-Pacific region.

Guy Carpenter & Company, a member of the Marsh & McLennan Companies, is a world leading risk and reinsurance specialist. With 50 offices worldwide, Guy Carpenter creates and executes reinsurance solutions and delivers capital market solutions for clients across the globe.