(EnergyAsia, January 27 2015, Tuesday) — The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecasts for both global oil demand and supply growth for 2015 in its January report compared with the previous month.

It has also sharply slashed its forecast for crude prices with North Sea Brent to average $58 per barrel in 2015 and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to trade at US$54 to $55. In December, the agency had called for Brent to average US$68 per barrel in 2015, down US$15 from its November forecast, while WTI would trade at an average US$63 instead of US$78.


Helped by these low prices, the EIA believes global oil demand will rise to record highs over the next two years, by 1.09% to 92.39 million b/d in 2015, and 93.42 million b/d next year. It estimated 2014 demand at 91.39 million b/d.

On the supply side, the agency has boosted its forecast for 2015 global output to 92.97 million b/d, compared with 91.96 million b/d in the December report. Despite the weak outlook on oil prices, the industry will continue to raise production in 2016 to 93.58 million b/d.

As mentioned by President Barack Obama, the US has become a leading global oil and gas producer. The EIA expects US liquid fuels output to rise more than 6% to 14.83 million b/d in 2015, and by a further 3.65% to 15.37 million b/d next year.

It is projecting US crude oil production to average 9.3 million b/d in 2015, and 9.5 million b/d in 2016, just slightly less than the record 9.6 million b/d achieved in 1970.

In contrast, OPEC crude oil production fell slightly to average 29.9 million b/d in 2014 as losses in Libya, Angola, Algeria and Kuwait more than offset production growth in Iraq and Iran.

The EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to remain flat in 2015 and to fall by 300,000 b/d in 2016.

While positioned to become OPEC’s largest contributor of growth over the next two years, Iraq’s production and export face the threats of sabotage and theft by the Islamic State (ISIS).

The EIA said it expects global oil inventories to continue to build to keep the glut of new supplies from hitting the markets and further putting pressure on prices.

It estimates that global oil inventories rose by almost 800,000 b/d in 2014, the largest build since 2008 when falling demand caused prices to plunge in the second half of the year.

This time around, it said the market’s weakness has been caused by the production surge in the US and other non-OPEC countries which hit a record high totalling two million b/d in 2014.

“Global oil inventories are expected to continue to grow by 900,000 b/d during the first half of 2015, but to taper off by the end of the year as non-OPEC supply growth, particularly from the US, weakens because of lower oil prices,” said the EIA.

Within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), commercial oil inventories grew by a record 158 million barrels in 2014, after ending 2013 at the lowest end-of-year level since 2003.

Underlining the continuing global supply glut, the EIA said it expects OECD commercial inventories to grow by 68 million barrels in 2015 and to stay flat in 2016.

 

Jan 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d

2014    2015 * y/y %   2016 * y/y %

  1. America 23.45 23.67   0.94     23.76   0.38

China                          10.98   11.30   2.91     11.65   3.10

Others                                    56.96   57.42   0.81     57.47   0.09

TOTAL                         91.39   92.39   1.09     93.42   1.11

*forecast

 

Dec 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d

2013    2014 * y/y %   2015 * y/y %

  1. America 23.44 23.39   -0.21    23.51   0.51

China                          10.61   10.98   3.49     11.34   3.28

Others                                    56.43   57.07   1.13     57.47   0.70

TOTAL                         90.48   91.44   1.06     92.32   0.96

*forecast

Nov 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d

2013    2014 * y/y %   2015 * y/y %

  1. America 23.44 23.34   -0.43    23.48   0.60

China                          10.61   10.98   3.49     11.34   3.28

Others                                    56.43   57.06   1.11     57.68   1.09

TOTAL                         90.48   91.38   0.99     92.50   1.23

*forecast

 

Oct 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d

2013    2014 * y/y %   2015 * y/y %

  1. America 23.40 23.36   -0.17    23.56   0.86

China                          10.61   10.98   3.49     11.35   3.37

Others                                    56.44   57.13   1.22     57.80   1.17

TOTAL                         90.45   91.47   1.13     92.71   1.36

*forecast

Sept 2014: EIA’s world liquids demand forecast, in million b/d

2013    2014 * y/y %   2015 * y/y %

  1. America 23.38 23.35   -0.13    23.54   0.81

China                          10.61   10.98   3.49     11.41   3.92

Others                                    56.52   57.22   1.24     58.03   1.42

TOTAL                         90.51   91.55   1.15     92.98   1.56

*forecast

Jan 2015: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d

2014    2015 * y/y %   2016 * y/y %

OPEC                           36.00   36.13   0.36     36.14   0.03

Non-OPEC                   56.18   56.84   1.17     57.37   0.93

– US                                              13.98     14.83     6.08        15.37     3.65

TOTAL                         92.18   92.97   0.86     93.51   0.58

*forecast

 

Dec 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d

2013    2014 * y/y %   2015 * y/y %

OPEC                           36.03   35.96   -0.19    35.92   -0.11

Non-OPEC                   54.13   56.00   3.45     56.84   1.50

– US                                              12.34     13.90     12.64     14.89     7.12

TOTAL                         90.16   91.96   2.00     92.75   0.86

*forecast

Nov 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d

2013    2014 * y/y %   2015 * y/y %

OPEC                           36.03   35.92   -0.31    35.93   0.02

Non-OPEC                   54.16   56.03   3.45     56.98   1.70

– US                                              12.36     13.86     12.14     14.95     7.86

TOTAL                         90.18   91.95   1.96     92.91   1.04

*forecast

 

Oct 2014: EIA’s world liquids supply forecast, in million b/d

2013    2014 * y/y %   2015 * y/y %

OPEC                           36.03   35.78   -0.69    35.51   -0.75

Non-OPEC                   54.12   55.98   3.44     57.15   2.09

– US                                              12.34     13.82     11.99     15.05     8.90

TOTAL                         90.15   91.76   1.79     92.67   0.99

*forecast

 

This entry was posted in and tagged . Bookmark the .