(EnergyAsia, February 23 2014, Monday) — Will a combination of rising demand and lower supply growth be sufficient to reverse the slump in world oil prices?


It certainly helps, but it may not be enough to kickstart a recovery even with the latest improved supply-demand forecasts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In its February report, the cartel said it expects global demand to rise by 1.28% from last year’s 91.15 million b/d to 92.32 million b/d in 2015. Both numbers are an upgrade from the January’s report which estimated the world’s 2014 consumption at 91.13 million b/d, and forecast next year’s at 92.26 million b/d.

Non-OPEC supply, the main reason for the world’s oil glut, is seen rising by a mere 1.53% from 56.23 million b/d last year to 57.09 million b/d in 2015. That’s quite a drop from the January forecast for the 2015 supply to rise 2.26% to 57.49 million b/d.

The cartel said non-OPEC oil supply grew by 1.99 million b/d last year, with increases reported for North America, Brazil, Kazakhstan and China and partially offset by downward revisions from Azerbaijan, Mexico and most of Asia and Australia.

Since plunging to the US$40-barrel range in late January, crude prices have rebounded above US$50 for US WTI and over US$60 for North Sea Brent. But traders and analysts are warning the recovery is temporary and will stall in the face of record production and stockpile levels that are still rising.

UK major BP was the latest to jump on the bear bandwagon when its chief executive Bob Dudley said he expects oil prices to remain weak for years. In announcing its latest quarterly results and a US$6 billion reduction in capital spending for 2015, he said the industry will have to adjust to this new reality.

OPEC has also dimmed its 2015 outlook for the global economy with a forecast for growth at 3.4% compared with 3.6% in January. That weaker outlook is due mostly to slower growth in the Chinese economy, which OPEC now expects to expand by 7% instead of 7.2%.

The rosier outlook for India’s economy — a forecast 6% expansion from last month’s 5.8% call — will be more than offset by an expected 2.4% contraction in the Russian economy and a meagre 0.7% rise in Brazil’s. In its January report, OPEC had expected the Russian economy to show no growth and Brazil’s to expand by 1%.

 

February 2015

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.08 24.18   24.39   0.87

Europe                       13.61 13.40   13.31   -0.67

OECD Asia                   8.32   8.14    8.02   -1.47

Total OECD                 46.01   45.72   45.72   0

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.28 11.53   2.22

China                          10.07   10.46   10.77   2.87

Latin America                        6.50  6.70    6.90   2.99

Middle East               7.81    8.06    8.34   3.47

Africa                           3.63    3.74    3.83   2.41

FSU                              4.49    4.54    4.58   0.88

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.20   91.15   92.32   1.28

Previous estimate   90.20   91.13   92.26   1.24

 

January 2015

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.08 24.18   24.37   0.79

Europe                       13.61 13.40   13.31   -0.67

OECD Asia                   8.32   8.14    8.02   -1.47

Total OECD                 46.01   45.72   45.70   -0.07

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.28 11.53   2.22

China                          10.07   10.45   10.75   2.87

Latin America                        6.50  6.71    6.91   2.98

Middle East               7.81    8.07    8.35   3.47

Africa                           3.63    3.73    3.82   2.41

FSU                              4.49    4.54    4.58   0.88

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.20   91.15   92.30   1.26

Previous estimate   90.20   91.13   92.26   1.24

 

December 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.08 24.15   24.31   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.39   13.30   -0.67

OECD Asia                   8.32   8.16    8.04   -1.47

Total OECD                 46.01   45.71   45.64   -1.53

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.28 11.52   2.13

China                          10.07   10.42   10.73   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.78    6.93   2.21

Middle East               7.81    8.09    8.38   3.58

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.20   91.13   92.26   1.24

Previous estimate   90.14   91.19   92.38   1.31

 

November 2014

Table 1. World oil demand, million b/d

2013   2014    2015    2015/14 %

Americas                   24.05 24.17   24.33   0.66

Europe                       13.61 13.41   13.34   -0.52

OECD Asia                   8.29   8.16    8.06   -1.23

Total OECD                 45.95   45.74   45.73   -0.02

 

Other Asia                 11.06   11.29 11.52   2.04

China                          10.07   10.41   10.72   2.98

Latin America                        6.50  6.72    6.95   3.42

Middle East               7.81    8.12    8.41   3.57

Africa                           3.63    3.72    3.81   2.42

FSU                              4.49    4.55    4.60   1.10

Other Europe                         0.64    0.65    0.66   1.54

Total world                 90.14   91.19   92.38   1.31

Previous estimate   90.14   91.19   92.39   1.31

 

 

 

February 2015

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.4       0.2       0.9                   7.4

2015                3.4       2.2       2.9       1.2       1.2                   7.0

 

January 2015

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.4       0.2       0.9                   7.4

2015                3.6       2.2       2.9       1.2       1.2                   7.2

 

December 2014

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.2       0.4       0.8                   7.4

2015                3.6       2.1       2.6       1.2       1.1                   7.2

 

November 2014

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.1       0.8       0.7                   7.4

2015                3.4       2.0       2.6       1.2       1.1                   7.2

 

October 2014

Table 2. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast

World OECD   US       Japan Eurozone       China

2014                3.2       1.8       2.1       0.8       0.7                   7.4

2015                3.4       2.0       2.6       1.2       1.1                   7.2

 

 

February 2015

OPEC’s forecasts for non-OPEC oil supply in 2015, million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Latest estimate        54.24   56.23   3.67     57.09   1.53

Previous estimate   54.24   56.22   3.65     57.49   2.26

 

January 2015

OPEC’s forecasts for non-OPEC oil supply in million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Latest estimate        54.24   56.22   3.65     57.49   2.26

Previous estimate   54.23   55.95   3.17     57.31   2.43

 

December 2014

OPEC’s forecasts for non-OPEC oil supply in million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Latest estimate        54.23   55.95   3.17     57.31   2.43

Previous estimate   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

 

November 2014

OPEC’s forecasts for non-OPEC oil supply in million b/d

2013    2014    %         2015    %

Latest estimate        54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

Previous estimate   54.23   55.91   3.10     57.16   2.24

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