(EnergyAsia, December 21 2011, Wednesday) — World oil consumption will rise by 900,000 b/d in 2011, and by 1.1 million b/d to 88.9 million b/d next year, said the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly forecast.
Compared with last month’s forecast, the cartel has kept unchanged its expectations for world oil demand growth for 2011.
However, it has revised down its 2012 figures by 100,000 b/d on account of slowing economic growth in the OECD which is expected to have spill-over effects on China and India.
With its members raising production by 560,000 b/d, the cartel said global oil supply increased 1.31 million b/d in November to average 89.12 million b/d. It estimates that non-OPEC raised production by 750,000 b/d.
For 2011, the cartel expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 200,000 b/d in 2011, down by about 50,000 b/d from its previous estimate as a result of slower production growth from Australia, Syria, Sudan and Azerbaijan.
For 2012, it expects non-OPEC oil supply to increase by 700,000 b/d over the current year, around 100,000 b/d lower than the previous assessment. Most of the increase will come from the US, Brazil, Canada, Colombia and Russia.
OPEC said it expects its members to add 400,000 b/d of natural gas liquids (NGL) and non-conventional oil supplies for both 2011 and 2012.
Despite the continuing gloom over the US and European economies, OPEC expects the world economy to grow by 3.6% in 2011 as well as 2012.
But it revised down its 2012 forecast for the OECD from 1.7% to 1.5%, with the US economy seen expanding by 1.7% instead of 1.8%, and the Euro-zone growing by just 0.4% instead of 0.7%. Japan is forecast to expand by 1.9% in 2012 compared with 2% in its previous forecast.
With China’s economy remaining “resilient”, OPEC boosted its forecast for the country’s 2012 growth to 8.7% from 8.5%. However, this will be somewhat offset by India’s “decelerating” momentum as its economy will grow by 7.5% instead of 7.6%.