(EnergyAsia, October 30 2014, Thursday) — Maintaining its outlook for the global economy, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has also retained its latest forecasts for world oil demand and supply for 2014 and 2015 unchanged from its previous report in September.
In its October report, the cartel said it expects the world to consume 91.19 million b/d in 2014 and 92.39 million b/d next year.
OPEC expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% and 3.4% over the next two years, little changed from its forecasts of the last three months. The forecast was made before the US Federal Reserves confirmed its widely expected decision to cease its monthly bond purchase programme that was launched to stimulate the global economy shortly after the financial crisis began in 2008.
The Fed said its move to stop “quantitative easing” this month was in line with the market’s growing confidence in the US economic recovery, although many continue to worry about Europe and Japan.
The developed economies and most of Asia are poised to benefit from the sharp decline in oil prices which are expected to remain weak through the rest of the year. Brent crude has plunged from a high of US$115 per barrel to less than US$84 on October 15. In separate reports released this week, Goldman Sachs and Barclays predict crude prices could plunge to the US$70/barrel range next year.
On the supply side, the cartel has also kept unchanged its forecasts for non-OPEC production to average 55.91 million b/d in 2014 and 57.16 million b/d for next year, with North America the main source of growth.
For 2015, OPEC expects the US to raise production by 880,000 b/d and Canada by 240,000 b/d, more than offsetting a 30,000 b/d decline n Mexico. Latin America production is expected to grow by 180,000 b/d, with Brazil boosting supply by 190,000 b/d to average 3.04 million b/d.
The cartel expects the former Soviet Union (FSU) states to show an 80,000 b/d decline in production to 13.32 million b/d. Kazakhstan’s production will fall 80,000 b/d, Russia’s will decline 30,000 b/d while Azerbaijan will drop by 10,000 b/d.
“Africa’s production is forecast to drop by 30,000 b/d in 2015 compared with other non-OPEC regions, while Chinese oil supply is expected to grow by 60,000 b/d to reach an average of 4.32 million b/d in 2015,” said OPEC.
October 2014
Table 1. World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast
World OECD US Japan Eurozone China
2014 3.2 1.8 2.1 0.8 0.7 7.4
2015 3.4 2.0 2.6 1.2 1.1 7.2
September 2014
World economic growth: OPEC’s forecast
World OECD US Japan Eurozone China
2014 3.1 1.8 2.1 0.9 0.8 7.4
2015 3.4 2.0 2.6 1.2 1.1 7.2
October 2014
Forecasts: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2014 and 2015, million b/d
2013 2014 % 2015 %
Non-OPEC 54.23 55.91 1.68 57.16 1.24
Previous estimate 54.23 55.91 1.68 57.16 1.24
October 2014
Table 2. World oil demand, million b/d
2013 2014 2015 2015/14 %
Americas 24.05 24.17 24.33 0.66
Europe 13.61 13.41 13.34 -0.52
OECD Asia 8.29 8.16 8.06 -1.23
Total OECD 45.95 45.74 45.73 -0.03
Other Asia 11.06 11.29 11.52 2.04
China 10.07 10.41 10.72 2.98
Latin America 6.50 6.72 6.95 3.35
Middle East 7.81 8.12 8.41 3.43
Africa 3.63 3.72 3.81 2.42
FSU 4.49 4.55 4.60 1.10
Other Europe 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.01
Total world 90.14 91.19 92.39 1.31
Previous estimate 90.14 91.19 92.38 1.30
September 2014
World oil demand, million b/d
2013 2014 2015 2015/14 %
Americas 24.05 24.19 24.35 0.66
Europe 13.61 13.41 13.34 -0.52
OECD Asia 8.29 8.23 8.06 -2.07
Total OECD 45.95 45.77 45.75 -0.04
Other Asia 11.06 11.29 11.52 2.04
China 10.07 10.39 10.70 2.98
Latin America 6.50 6.72 6.95 3.42
Middle East 7.81 8.12 8.41 3.57
Africa 3.63 3.72 3.81 2.42
FSU 4.49 4.55 4.60 1.10
Other Europe 0.64 0.63 0.64 0.01
Total world 90.14 91.19 92.38 1.30
Previous estimate 90.01 91.11 92.32 1.32
August 2014
World oil demand, million b/d
2013 2014 2015 2015/14 %
Americas 23.96 24.13 24.34 0.87
Europe 13.59 13.41 13.34 -0.52
OECD Asia 8.36 8.23 8.13 -1.22
Total OECD 45.91 45.77 45.81 0.09
Other Asia 11.06 11.29 11.52 2.04
China 10.07 10.39 10.70 2.98
Latin America 6.50 6.73 6.95 3.27
Middle East 7.81 8.12 8.41 3.57
Africa 3.55 3.64 3.71 1.92
FSU 4.48 4.53 4.58 1.10
Other Europe 0.64 0.63 0.64 0.01
Total world 90.01 91.11 92.32 1.32
Previous estimate 90.01 91.13 92.35 1.34