(EnergyAsia, July 28 2011, Thursday) — The 12-member Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could see their net oil export revenues surge by 35% to a new high of US$1,028 billion in 2011, and by a further 7.8% to US$1,108 billion in 2012, said the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In its July 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, the EIA said the cartel, which comprises Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Venezuela, will breach the trillion-dollar export level for the first time with prices holding at around US$110 a barrel.
Last year, OPEC made US$778 billion, enabling its members to achieve a per-capita net oil export earnings of US$2,074. Saudi Arabia had the largest earnings of US$225 billion, representing 29% of total OPEC revenues.
With oil markets expected to tighten through 2012 on account of rising world oil demand and slowing supply growth from non-OPEC producers, the EIA has projected US refiners to pay an average US$102 for a barrel of crude in 2011 and US$108 per barrel in 2012.
The agency expects total world oil consumption to grow by 1.4 million b/d to 88.1 million b/d in 2011 and by 1.6 million b/d to 89.7 million b/d in 2012. It said the world will rely on both a drawdown of inventories and production increases in both non-OPEC and OPEC countries to meet the increased demand.
Non-OPEC countries are expected to increase production by an average of 600,000 b/d annually in 2011 and 2012 while OPEC is seen boosting production of crude and non-crude liquids by 300,000 and 900,000 b/d in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
The EIA said the outlook on oil prices remains uncertain on account of risk of further supply disruptions in producing regions like Sudan, doubts over the willingness and ability of key OPEC-member countries to increase and sustain production, the outlook on the world economy, and fiscal issues facing governments of many important countries around the world.